Index Investing

Jelly Beans and the Stock Market

At Triune’s recent Open House, we did a fun experiment. All of our visitors guessed how many jelly beans were in a jar. Enticed with a prize (Visa gift card) for the winner, they had motivation to make a good guess. You wouldn’t think it, but the results are actually analogous to the behavior of individual investors as compared to the stock market as a whole.

Here are the results of our Jelly Bean Experiment:

  • There were 53 total guesses submitted
  • The highest guess was 3,100
  • The lowest guess was 150
  • The average of all submitted guesses was 588
  • AND the actual number of Jelly Beans was 554
  • Our winner, incredibly, guessed 556!

Isn’t it interesting how remarkably close the “Average” guess of all 53 participants was to the “Actual” number? Click on this 3 minute video clip to see how similar this exercise is to where stocks are trading at today. Triune believes that, working together, we can harness this collective knowledge to put the power of the capital markets to work for you.